Preliminary Analysis:The data and models presented currently serve as proof-of-concept assessments. As our underlying statistical modelling progresses, these views and parameters will be continuously updated.
Carbon at Risk (CaR)
Quantifying the maximum expected loss of carbon across centuries.
Why 200 years?
Predicting carbon storage outcomes requires a balance between ambition and credibility. Beyond 200 years, uncertainty compounds to the point where projections become difficult to defend — the further out you go, the wider the range of possible futures and the harder it is to distinguish signal from noise.
For most pathways, 200 years is also where the CaR curve begins to plateau. Once a carbon store has survived the conditions most likely to cause loss, the probability of further loss diminishes. Where the curve flattens, storage can reasonably be considered permanent and monitoring obligations can be retired.
Important Distinction:200 years of projections does not mean 200 years of ambition. The atmospheric obligation requires permanent storage — and there are credible pathways to delivering it. A monitoring institution that updates projections and outcomes as science improves, operating alongside dedicated funds that can replace reversals as they occur, is how 1,000-year permanence becomes manageable rather than theoretical.
Moving carbon markets beyond binary “permanent” vs “nature-based” labels, CaR utilises probabilistic modeling to predict maximum expected carbon loss in 90%, 95% and 99% of scenarios, establishing a unified metric for estimating planetary storage for centuries to come.
The Science Behind the Tool
Based on the work by Lee et al., the CaR metric provides a robust method to evaluate carbon storage.
View the whitepaperStrategic Insights
Turn storage uncertainty into actionable data.
Trajectories Over Time
Visualise how reversal risk changes over a 200-year horizon, shifting the focus from expected outcomes to real carbon accounting and opening up possibilities for horizontal stacking.
Tail Risk & Correlations
Quantify vulnerabilities in worst-case scenarios and model how combining projects absorbs or compounds storage risk, ensuring buffer pool and/or reserves are correctly sized.
Cross-Pathway Comparability
Express risk in common units across fundamentally different approaches. This moves the industry past debates over the “best” method and focuses on the collective stewardship of global carbon stocks.
Select Analysis Module
Pathway Explorer
Analyse how carbon removal storage changes over time under different risk drivers
Track Trajectories Over Time: See exactly when losses are most likely to occur, and how large they might be, to ensure claims match their obligations.
Evaluate Project Viability: Assess whether the specific risk profile of an individual pathway justifies its price.
Compare Apples to Oranges: Establish a baseline understanding of how different technologies hold up under standardised confidence intervals.
Portfolio Builder
Explore different carbon portfolios and visualise the risk vs cost trade-offs.
Quantify Tail Risk & Correlations: See how diversification reduces risk and learn how the degree of protection depends on how independent your risks are.
Optimise Cost vs. Certainty: Navigate the trade-offs between the price per tonne and the certainty of your outcome to design a market-ready portfolio.
Compare on a Common Scale: Bridge technologies that differ fundamentally in cost and risk.